Cari pochi "seguaci" lettori del mio blog , oggi ritorno a scrivere per un doveroso commento alle Regionali che hanno più stupito, in quanto ad esito, degli ultimi 15 anni (riflessione personalissima mia), ma cercherò di evitare di dire le solite banalità che avrete sicuramente già letto/sentito in ogni dove e su ogni giornale/telegionalre/sito internet: voglio infatti partire da un grafico preso dal sempre ottimo sito di Politica In Rete (PIR, erede della mai Forgot POL - Politics On Line) , which I quoted at the beginning of post, and showing without doubt the reality of this election.
Explanatory Foreword 1): the numbers and percentages that you see in the table are homogenized , or refer to the votes taken by parties in several rounds in the sun 13 regions involved in the vote in recent days. That's why, for example, you will see that the PDL in 2008 took Policies 35.4% and 37% that we all remember.
Explanatory Foreword 2) : are not included in vows of PDL and PD, the consents received from the various self-styled "Lists citizenship "of the candidates-regional presidents.
Explanatory Foreword 3): the data of the PDL is not" normalized "for the missing blue list in the Province of Rome, so we'll keep in mind add to that 27 , 28% of these Regional least a 3% attributable to Rome and its surroundings, thus arriving at about 30%.
That said, you can three considerations immediate and incontrovertible :
Parlando con alcuni amici e conoscenti, il calo del PdL sarebbe da attribuire all'eccessivo "appiattimento" sulle politiche e sulla retorica leghista, che porterebbe l'elettorato a scegliere l'originale invece che la copia: lettura verosimile, ma fino ad un certo punto.
A mio avviso c'è sì stato un certo sbandamento verso la Lega, ma non solo : il punto veramente dolente è che in generale un elettore potenziale pidiellino non sa tutt'ora su cosa stia mettendo la propria croce!
A seconda dell'esponente che parla od esterna, un uditore esterno poco addentro alla politica potrebbe pensare che il PdL sia il partito personale di Berlusconi (sentendo ad esempio Bondi o Quagliariello), un partito liberal-liberista quasi radicale (ascoltando Capezzone o Della Vedova), un partito social-democratico (Sacconi), di destra sociale anti-liberale (Alemanno), cattolico integralista (Marcello Pera ed a volte lo stesso Berlusconi), di destra sedicente "europea" - ma nei fatti quasi liberal all'americana - (ascoltando Fini e FareFuturo), nordista (Tremonti) o meridionalista (Fitto).
Non sapendo bene che linea politica stia "sposando", l'elettore medio che fa? O si astiene, o vota per trust / know of any candidate for, or is thrown on what is at least clear on all the Northern League .
I sincerely hope that the election hangover do not lose sight of the leaders of the PDL - Berlusconi and Fini in the first place - and contact with the reality that the ballot box, beyond the victory of the coalition, delivered with respect to the PdL : once again postpone the inevitable reorganization (which almost put an end to territorial inconsistency), clarification on policy and a full democracy / meritocracy inside could be a time bomb ready to explode on the day of the 2013 Policy ...
close with some personal satisfaction:
Explanatory Foreword 1): the numbers and percentages that you see in the table are homogenized , or refer to the votes taken by parties in several rounds in the sun 13 regions involved in the vote in recent days. That's why, for example, you will see that the PDL in 2008 took Policies 35.4% and 37% that we all remember.
Explanatory Foreword 2) : are not included in vows of PDL and PD, the consents received from the various self-styled "Lists citizenship "of the candidates-regional presidents.
Explanatory Foreword 3): the data of the PDL is not" normalized "for the missing blue list in the Province of Rome, so we'll keep in mind add to that 27 , 28% of these Regional least a 3% attributable to Rome and its surroundings, thus arriving at about 30%.
That said, you can three considerations immediate and incontrovertible :
- from the point of view mere voting percentages intravisibile is a clear downward trend for the two self-styled "major political parties to call" with a loss for the purest Democratic Party (beyond the vulgate populi Bersani sees that claim to have won over European), compared with a more modest but steady growth of Northern League ;
- in terms of absolute numbers of votes , however, the declines in support for parties is impressive and applies to everyone, including the acclaimed Northern League, which, in fact, increased its relative weight only because she managed to stop the bleeding more than other voters;
- the gap between the two coalitions (always keeping in mind to add three points to PDL% more for the history of Rome) is around 11 points on , broadly in line with data from European and growth in relation to Policies 2008. However, there is confirmation of the trend a representative decreasing the current two opposing coalitions, which together accounted "only" 67.68% of the electorate voting: If you pass the overall electorate, it is very likely that parties in Parliament today (except the People's Party) does not represent even half of those entitled to vote.
Parlando con alcuni amici e conoscenti, il calo del PdL sarebbe da attribuire all'eccessivo "appiattimento" sulle politiche e sulla retorica leghista, che porterebbe l'elettorato a scegliere l'originale invece che la copia: lettura verosimile, ma fino ad un certo punto.
A mio avviso c'è sì stato un certo sbandamento verso la Lega, ma non solo : il punto veramente dolente è che in generale un elettore potenziale pidiellino non sa tutt'ora su cosa stia mettendo la propria croce!
A seconda dell'esponente che parla od esterna, un uditore esterno poco addentro alla politica potrebbe pensare che il PdL sia il partito personale di Berlusconi (sentendo ad esempio Bondi o Quagliariello), un partito liberal-liberista quasi radicale (ascoltando Capezzone o Della Vedova), un partito social-democratico (Sacconi), di destra sociale anti-liberale (Alemanno), cattolico integralista (Marcello Pera ed a volte lo stesso Berlusconi), di destra sedicente "europea" - ma nei fatti quasi liberal all'americana - (ascoltando Fini e FareFuturo), nordista (Tremonti) o meridionalista (Fitto).
Non sapendo bene che linea politica stia "sposando", l'elettore medio che fa? O si astiene, o vota per trust / know of any candidate for, or is thrown on what is at least clear on all the Northern League .
I sincerely hope that the election hangover do not lose sight of the leaders of the PDL - Berlusconi and Fini in the first place - and contact with the reality that the ballot box, beyond the victory of the coalition, delivered with respect to the PdL : once again postpone the inevitable reorganization (which almost put an end to territorial inconsistency), clarification on policy and a full democracy / meritocracy inside could be a time bomb ready to explode on the day of the 2013 Policy ...
close with some personal satisfaction:
- won the wager with a friend, on the regions that were conquered by the coalition government, although I must say that when I expected, I was certain that it overestimated the result of PDL + League;
- I basically guessed the vote-by-State Region of the Northern League;
- friend Andrea Poultry People of Freedom of Piacenza, had a plebiscite deserved for his candidacy Consiglieren region, with over 8,600 preferences , which are exceptional results both in relative terms (compared to 2005, when Pollastri took about 3,000 votes), both in absolute terms (taking into account that the PDL in Piacenza went below 30%): great Andrea! I know my vote was not wasted and that, as you've always done well by City Council, you'll always know to be available to everyone!
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