Aluminium 1/01/08-29/06/09 
Nickel 1/01/08-29/06/09
Copper 1/01/08-29/06/09 
Whoever works, studies or interests of the financial market and economy as a whole can not but have wondered where the same euphoric sense of the current phase of the awards: The economic crisis is showing all its depth and severity, the industrial production of various countries are lagging behind, as well as the level of employment, not to mention the high rate of corporate failures. Why 
then the bags are just like that?
Someone proposes the theory that the financial market is serving the end of 2009 expected to pick : I personally do not believe, and not because they believe the market opportunities to incorporate - and somewhat expected - the economic recovery, but simply because I do not think absolutely that there will be restarted at the end of 2009 . In fact, I do not think this will even the beginning of 2010: Do not push me over, I would go in the field of foresight and finance ...
I give credit, however, for what is obviously my opinion - almost nothing - to whom, as Marigia Mangano on Il Sole 24 Ore.com , links the current stock market rally immense mass of liquidity poured by central banks in the world economy in recent months .
In practice, to simplify, we would be facing the unfolding of that famous law, such excess money supply, following a surge, more or less, of prices and therefore inflation.
Some will say: " but why do not we see inflation in the surveys done on the baskets of consumer goods? "
The answer, even if not intended to be the truth, it could be so articulate.
Investors have the makings of a great mass of liquidity to be used and, because the expectations of the economy called "real" (or "things that rattle " [cit.]) Remain bleak, investment real languish, income (down from GDP) is not growing, and this money can pour in the only form of income in this period of uncertainty: financial investment or anything that is derogatory called "speculation" . Obviously, the impact of so much money on the prices of stocks, bonds, commodities, etc . causes an upward movement of prices of all these activities, driven not by need but industrial jobs in the short term.
simplify more, you could say that, for the moment, the deflationary pressures that a recession requires the real economy, because those are still too higher inflationary monetary expansion derived, have effects on prices of consumer goods . Deflation, which instead has no effect on financial assets, then you will appreciate.
is not a theory so farfetched, since in previous years to this crisis , rigging and expansionary policies of low interest rates (inflationary by nature), it had praticamente effetto sui prezzi al consumo per l'esistenza di potenti forze deflattive che ne annullavano gli effetti (per esempio l'ingresso della manodopera e dei prodotti indo-cinesi, a buon mercato, sul palcoscenico mondiale).
Staremo a vedere, io mi limito a fornire questo spunto di lettura dell'attuale fase di Borsa, sapendo benissimo che potrei sbagliarmi, ed anche di grosso. ;-)
P.s. In apertura di post ho riportato i grafici dei prezzi di alluminio , nickel e rame (tre delle materie prime più importanti, oltre alle "classiche" acciaio, petrolio e gas) dal primo gennaio 2008 ad oggi. Buona lettura!
Lord tojo
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